Living on our planet, today, requires a lot more imagination than we are made to have. This book is about the absolutely unexpected, the black swan you would never suspect if you only saw white swans all your life. The library should contain as much of what you don’t know as your financial means, mortgage rates and the currently tight real-estate market allows you to put there. PROLOGUEON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDSBefore the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The more unexpected the success of such a venture, the smaller the number of competitors, and the more successful the entrepreneur who implements the idea. His treatment of the devastating events known as Black Swans ought to be required reading for all who would like to avoid causing or experiencing them.

But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even wore, as if we are able to change the course of history. How often did these things occur according to plan? Thaleb proposed Mandelbrotian approach against Gaussian (to which detail i am not technically capable to comprehend). He adds little bits of information in parentheses, between dashes, and then tacks some on with footnotes, all in some bizarre attempt to sound funny or cute or intelligent, but he really just sounds like a jerk.

He will die with the impression of having done nothing useful. ", or even "That just seems flat-out wrong". It has to be at some distance from expectations. It is a highly stimulating and entertaining book and will particularly delight those who enjoy the debunking of wrong-headed purveyors of elaborate academic theories that are not just useless but actually harmful. The book is a treasure trove if you are a quizzer. So much has been written about it, that I am going to limit myself to some essentials. I work at a factory where I assist engineers in better understanding how processes work and making things better. Grow Your Child's Library with Top Young Reader Series, 50% Off All Funko Wetmore Forest POP!, Plush, and More, Knock Knock Gifts, Books & Office Supplies, Buy One, Get One 50% Off Holiday Boxed Cards, Learn how to enable JavaScript on your browser, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms, Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black, The Last Tycoons: The Secret History of Lazard. I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'yes men' in the form of books and actively seek to challenge my personal beliefs through the things I read and study.

Edition (May 11, 2010), "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Book Review, Too demeaning of others--even if they might deserve some blame for things, Reviewed in the United States on June 14, 2018. The use of mathematics in social sciences overestimates what we know (observed past events)and underestimates what we don't (probable future events): too little science papers succeeded to make (near) accurate predictions; and successful inventions ar. (Don’t cheat by using the explanations drilled into your cranium by your dull high school teacher). Indeed those who read too much Wittgenstein (and writings about comments about Wittgenstein) may be under the impression that language problems are important. May 15th 2007 I just finished it yesterday and my only regret is to not have read years ago.

luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.

Indeed, the more you know, the larger the rows of unread books. Now updated in paperback.

Models and constructions are not always wrong; they are wrong only in some specific places. Some of the anecdotes will have you chuckling or even laughing out loud!

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