Political forecasting aims at predicting the outcome of elections. Hove, informally known usually as Hove and Portslade, is a borough constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2015 by Labour's Peter Kyle. Electoral College Vote Calculator and Map Generator. Run what-if … From April 2019, the headline prediction covered the Brexit Party and Change UK - The Independent Group. It considers national factors but excludes local issues.

The mean polling error for the two largest parties was 4.8%.

EC correctly predicted the majority party in three (1997, 2001, 2005) and the hung parliament outcome in 2010. Nuneaton is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Marcus Jones, a Conservative. The Electoral Calculus of a SCOTUS Pick In swing states, independents and white women without college degrees say the winner of the election should fill the empty seat. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. It considers national factors but excludes local issues.

It considers national factors but excludes local issues. He’s turning down $98 million for unemployment benefits for the state of Louisiana. It doesn’t do a governor much good to win credibility for the Republican 2012 primary if he manages to get himself booted out of office for massive fiscal malfeasance. Burnley is a constituency centred on the town of Burnley in Lancashire. The mean polling error for the two largest parties was 4.8%. [2], The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Combating Colorism Amid a Global Racial Reckoning: An Interview with Nina Davuluri, Water is China’s Greatest Weapon and its Achilles Heel, The Importance of Culture in Societal Responses to COVID-19, Science, Society, and Security: Politicization in the Age of COVID-19. An electoral swing analysis shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. That would be Bobby Jindal. From April 2019, the headline prediction covered the Brexit Party and Change UK - The Independent Group. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the 2019 general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. [6], Across the seven general elections from 1992 to 2017:[8], It was listed by The Guardian in 2004 as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. In terms of an optimal cost-benefit tradeoff for rejecting money, I think Jindal made the right move. [9] In 2012 it was described by PhD student Chris Prosser at the University of Oxford as "probably the leading vote/seat predictor on the internet". The Electoral Calculus is considered the “leading vote/seat predictors on the internet”, according to an Oxford professor. Harrow West is a constituency created in 1945 represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament and which, having returned Conservative MPs only, has returned the Labour Co-operative MP Gareth Thomas in the six elections that began with 1997, on a fluctuating majority, which since 2010 has been bolstered by the loss of Pinner from the seat and gain of a favourable ward for the party from Harrow East. Not bad! In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. [10] Its detailed predictions for individual seats have been noted by Paul Evans on the localdemocracy.org.uk blog. Unsurprisingly, most of them are not turning down billions of dollars being thrown at their administrations.

Warwick and Leamington is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since the 2017 general election by Matt Western, of the Labour Party. [5], The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. Since 1997, the seat has been seen as an important national bellwether.

Westmorland and Lonsdale is a constituency in the south of Cumbria. But it's too late for Labour", "John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away". That is probably an impeachable offense right there, if ever I saw one. This analysis of course presupposes one cares nothing about the unemployed workers of Louisiana. Electoral Calculus. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election.

[11] Academic Nick Anstead noted in his observations from a 2010 Personal Democracy Forum event, that Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole considered Electoral Calculus to be "massively improved" in comparison with the swingometer. And while that is seemingly miniscule, it has made waves purely because he’s been the only one with the chutzpah (or courage, to use a more politically loaded term) to turn down sweet, sweet federal dollars. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the 2019 general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. [4] It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues. [7] The models are explained in detail on the web site. [11] Academic Nick Anstead noted in his observations from a 2010 Personal Democracy Forum event, that Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole considered Electoral Calculus to be "massively improved" in comparison with the swingometer. Posted by Alex Copulsky | Feb 23, 2009 | HPRgument Blog, Last Decade | 0 |. Sheffield Hallam is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Jared O'Mara. Thurrock is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Jackie Doyle-Price, a Conservative. So there’s been some electorally-focused grandstanding by GOP governors over the stimulus package. However, one brave soul is actually turning down part of the money. It seems to be a smart move, since this money only constitutes about 2% of the money coming to the state.

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. EC correctly predicted the party which won the most seats in six out of seven (all except 1992). Pudsey is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Stuart Andrew, a Conservative. [6] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters. This page was last edited on 9 December 2019, at 15:09. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. [15], "Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election", Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change, "Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet", https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html, "Predicting the next UK general election", "General Election 2010 – Action Replay (Personal Democracy Forum Event at the Royal Society for the Arts)", "Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung", "Tony Blair's back. Since 2015, the seat has been held by Paul Scully, a Conservative.

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