what would a magnitude 9 earthquake be like

As a new employee of the USGS, Wirth will now use geological clues to narrow down the possible earthquake scenarios. The Cascadia is capable of delivering a 9.0-magnitude quake — an awesome show of force by Mother Nature. “The reason is because the rupture is propagating away from Seattle, so it’s most affecting sites offshore. The research was done as part of the M9 Project, a National Science Foundation-funded effort to figure out what a magnitude-9 earthquake might look like in the Pacific Northwest and how people can prepare. It is the sound of the living surfaces that a city takes for granted becoming undone. A subduction zoneis a large area where two plates of the Earth’s crust meet and one is forced under the other. “There had been just a handful of detailed simulations of a magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake, and it was hard to know if they were showing the full range,” said Erin Wirth, who led the project as a UW postdoctoral researcher in Earth and space sciences. Like I said earlier, it would be far worse than any natural disaster that we have ever experienced in the history of the United States up until now. The Richter scale is logarithmic, meaning an increment each whole number increase in magnitude represents a tenfold increase in measured amplitude. For more information, contact Wirth at ewirth@uw.edu. If you're trying to subscribe with a non-UW email address, please email uwnews@uw.edu for assistance. It is the sound of shifting foundations and collapsing masonry, continuously, a roar increasing from every direction. In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. The Doc Is Not An Investment Adviser And Information Obtained Here Should Not Be Taken For Professional Investment Advice. How much bigger is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake than a magnitude 5.8 earthquake? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 was caused by a magnitude 9.1 earthquake; it killed at least 225,000 people in a dozen countries. Two publications are being reviewed by the USGS, and engineers are already using the simulation results to assess how tall buildings in Seattle might respond to the predicted pattern of shaking. © 2021 University of Washington | Seattle, WA, 50 simulations of the ‘Really Big One’ show how a 9.0 Cascadia earthquake could play out, Geological Society of America’s annual meeting, Earthquake early warnings launch in Washington, completing West Coast-wide ShakeAlert system, UW announces COVID-19 vaccine requirement for students, 6 UW-affiliated researchers elected to the National Academy of Sciences. (The types and nature of these waves are described in the section Seismic waves. The San Andreas Fault slipped along a segment about 270 miles (430 km) long, extending from San Juan Bautista in San Benito county to Humboldt county and from there perhaps out under the sea to an unknown distance. An earthquake of approximately magnitude 9 in 1700 in Cascadia could have instead been three or four slightly smaller, but still devastating, quakes. That’s roughly 30 times more powerful than the largest predicted San Andreas earthquake… …By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Listed below are all the 37 known earthquakes with an estimated magnitude of 8.5 or higher since 1500. Very big. “We’ve identified what parameters we think are important,” Wirth said. “Surprisingly, Seattle experiences less severe shaking if the epicenter is located just beneath the tip of northwest Washington,” Wirth said. Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes: A Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake Scenario. “We are finding large amplification of ground shaking by the Seattle basin,” said collaborator Art Frankel, a U.S. Geological Survey seismologist and affiliate faculty member at the UW. For us here … According to an article in the New Yorker , the head of the FEMA division that oversees Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Alaska says that “everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast”… The earthquake magnitude scale is logarithmic. We would also like to thank everyone who shared information and materials or contributed their time and expertise to this project. But within that general framework, the picture can vary a lot; depending on the scenario, the intensity of shaking can vary by a factor of 10. A University of Washington research project, to be presented Oct. 24 at the Geological Society of America’s annual meeting in Seattle, simulates 50 different ways that a magnitude-9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone could unfold. But wait, the scale measures seismic moment * not seismic energy. One of the worst nightmares for many Pacific Northwest residents is a huge earthquake along the offshore Cascadia Subduction Zone, which would unleash damaging and likely deadly shaking in coastal Washington, Oregon, British Columbia and northern California. In very real terms, these pictures from The Atlantic show exactly what an 8.9 magnitude earthquake looks like. To many Americans that may seem like “old news”, but I assure you that this is not “old news” to God. This project has really allowed us to be more confident in saying that we’re seeing the full range of possibilities.”. The largest earthquake ever recorded wa a magnitude-9.5 temblor that ripped along the coast of southern Chile on May 22, 1960. Environment  |  News releases  |  Research  |  Science. A recent piece by Adam Rothstein gives us an idea of what the first few moments of such a quake might look like in the city of Portland, Oregon…. Very large earthquakes release more energy, but it is spread over a much longer section of fault line. since a 9+ is the largest ever and a 9 is 10 times an 8 and a 10 is 10 times a 9 and an 11 is 10 times a ten and a 12 would be 10 times an 11, that would be about 10,000 times stronger than the strongest earthquake ever, it would cause catastrophic plate tectonic shifting and could possibly fracture the earth in unexpected ways. We are killing millions of babies, harvesting their body parts and auctioning those body parts off to the highest bidder. Experts believe the odds of a Big One happening in the next half century are about one in three, the odds of a Very Big One roughly one in ten, and that, in either case,we are disastrously unprepared. Rainier, which has been described as “, There was a congressional hearing about this last Wednesday. The Richter scale – also called the Richter magnitude scale or Richter's magnitude scale – is a measure of the strength of earthquakes, developed by Charles Francis Richter and presented in his landmark 1935 paper, where he called it the "magnitude scale". Let us hope that we have as much time as possible before our nation has to deal with such calamities, but the cold, hard truth is that we are certainly not helping matters by acting so wickedly. Videos and images for two of the simulations are available here. Wirth’s project ran simulations using different combinations for three key factors: the epicenter of the earthquake; how far inland the earthquake will rupture; and which sections of the fault will generate the strongest shaking. The high-resolution simulations were run on supercomputers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Texas, Austin. This magnitude 9.1 earthquake only released about 3 per cent of the energy of a theoretical magnitude 10 quake. Please don't answer with 1 word answers like "very" or "extremely". Earthquake researchers have become aware of the importance of “sticky points,” or areas between the plates that can catch and generate more shaking. A magnitude 9 In fact, most surveys show that an overwhelming percentage of the American people want to continue giving hundreds of millions of tax dollars to Planned Parenthood each year even though they have been doing this. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”. In addition, if the region starts to become more seismically active there is also a very real possibility that we could see a full-blown eruption of Mt. “I think there’s a future in using geologic evidence to constrain these parameters, and maybe improve our estimate of seismic hazard in the Pacific Northwest.”. rolling, jarring and jolting. Experts believe the odds of a Big One happening in the next half century are, And let us not forget that the Cascadia Subduction Zone sits directly along the Ring of Fire, and the Ring of Fire has started, In addition, if the region starts to become more seismically active there is also a very real possibility that we could see a full-blown eruption of Mt. And without a doubt, the shaking is coming soon…. It could happen any day. And let us not forget that the Cascadia Subduction Zone sits directly along the Ring of Fire, and the Ring of Fire has started to become much more activein recent years. Some Visualizations A magnitude of 8.9 is big. Cacophony swells from the city as if it is howling in response to the earth’s call: car alarms, shattering glass, the thudding of bricks popping out of building facades, humans screaming in fright, and far off, echoes of what sound like dumpsters clattering to the ground from the jaws of garbage trucks. The research effort began by establishing which factors most influence the pattern of ground shaking during a Cascadia earthquake. The way an earthquake feels depends on where you are, where the earthquake is, and how big the earthquake is:A large earthquake nearby will feel like a sudden large jolt followed quickly by more strong shaking that may last a few seconds or up to a couple of minutes if it's a rare great event. Magnitude 9 = 100,000,000 grains (about 572 pounds) Another way to compare the differences in various magnitudes is to look at the amount of energy released by each type of earthquake. The Analysis And Discussion Provided On Silverdoctors Is For Your Education And Entertainment Only, It Is Not Recommended For Trading Purposes. And it could happen at literally any moment. Magnitude. But when the epicenter is located pretty far offshore, the rupture travels inland and all of that strong ground shaking piles up on its way to Seattle, to make the shaking in Seattle much stronger.”. And a magnitude 100 would theoretically be 10^90 times bigger than a magnitude 10. And vice versa. The Chicxulub impact which killed the dinosaurs (while not an earthquake) had an equivalent magnitude to 13 approximately. If a magnitude 9.0 earthquake were to hit the Pacific Northwest, People in Seattle would fare much better if the epicenter struck beneath the tip of northwest Washington. Modeling a Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Coast Washington Military Department FEMA Emergency Management Division . I live in the United Kingdom, and luckily … We Do Not Share In Your Profits, And Thus Will Not Take Responsibility For Your Losses As Well. Simulation parameters for the scenario that generated the least shaking in the Seattle area.Erin Wirth/University of Washington/USGS. The world has only ever experienced a 9.5 magnitude earthquake. Earthquake magnitude, energy release, and shaking intensity are all related measurements of an earthquake that are often confused with one another. My thoughts go out to everyone affected. Their dependencies and relationships can be complicated, and even one of these concepts alone can be confusing. The plates sliding past each other cause extreme amounts of force to build up as friction restricts the movement. “The average duration of strong shaking in Seattle is about 100 seconds, about four times as long as from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.”. — M.B., Nicholasville, Kentucky. “With just a few simulations you didn’t know if you were seeing a best-case, a worst-case or an average scenario. Your Own Due Diligence Is Recommended Before Buying Or Selling Any Investments, Securities, Or Precious Metals. From that starting point, seismic waves will radiate away from Seattle, sending the biggest shakes in the direction of travel of the rupture. Wirth simulated a magnitude-9.0 earthquake, about the middle of the range of estimates for the magnitude of the 1700 earthquake. A magnitude 10 is 10x bigger than a magnitude 9. Earthquake magnitude. But there’s an upper limit to how much energy you can store in the rocks. A magnitude-9.0 earthquake would likely give way along the whole north-south extent of the subduction zone, but it’s not well known how far east the shake-producing area would extend, approaching the area beneath major cities such as Seattle and Portland. Reading about the earthquake that caused the recent tsunami in Japan, the paper said it was a magnitude 8.9/9, and the devastation it caused was unbelievable, especially when you bear in mind Japan is prepared for earthquakes (although obviously not on this scale). Off the Oregon and Washington coast, the Juan de Fuca oceanic plate is slowly moving under the North American plate. Oh this one did make me laugh. Earthquake magnitude is a measure of the “size,” or amplitude, of the seismic waves generated by an earthquake source and recorded by seismographs. Obviously, we didn't have any seismometers to record the shaking then, so we really don't know what it looked like in terms of the intensity of ground shaking. This earthquake occurred on May 22, 1960, near Valdivia, in southern Chile. The Commentary On Silverdoctors Reflects The Opinions Of The Doc And Other Contributing Authors. If we continue to do the same things that we have been doing, it is only a matter of time before the judgment of God comes to our land in a major way. Magnitude 9 = 100,000,000 grains (about 572 pounds) Another way to compare the differences in various magnitudes is to look at the amount of energy released by each type of earthquake. NY 10036. Overall, the results confirm that coastal areas would be hardest hit, and locations in sediment-filled basins like downtown Seattle would shake more than hard, rocky mountaintops. And when it does hit, it will be far worse than any other natural disaster that the United States has ever seen up to this point. Final example: comparing the magnitude-9.0 earthquake in Japan with the magnitude-6.3 quake that struck New Zealand in February. The Pacific Northwest is due for a continent-rending earthquake. Results show that the intensity of shaking can be less for Seattle if the epicenter is fairly close to beneath the city. But that is not what the scientists are telling us. In fact, they insist that the odds of “a continent-rending earthquake” in the near future are actually quite good…. In fact, many scientists believe that we are way overdue for a continent-altering earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. …By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Limited to a timeframe with enough data, this gives a rough estimate of its frequency per century. But none of the pictures is rosy. The following comes from CNSNews.com…. When the amount of force built up exceeds the friction holding it back, the plates slide past each other, causing the ground to rumble. Her 50 simulations used variables spanning realistic values for the depth of the slip, and had randomly placed hypocenters and sticky points. A magnitude-9.0 earthquake would likely give way along the whole north-south extent of the subduction zone, but it’s not well known how far east the shake-producing area would extend, approaching the area beneath major cities such as Seattle and Portland. Other co-authors are Nasser Marafi, a UW doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering; John Vidale, a former UW professor now at the University of Southern California; and Bill Stephenson with the USGS. What would a 9.0-magnitude quake that also produced a huge tsunami do to the highly populated northwest coast? The last time this happened was in 1700, before seismic instruments were around to record the event. Considering the destruction wreaked by the magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan in 2011, is a 10.0 possible? Obviously I can't speak for the poor people near its epicentre, but there are plenty of YouTube clips giving you an idea. According to an article in the New Yorker, the head of the FEMA division that oversees Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Alaska says that “everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast”…. I don’t think that it was any accident that the series of undercover Planned Parenthood videos that were released last year came out when they did. Mind you, much like a nuclear explosion (or in this case, a million nuclear explosions) - most of this energy was absorbed by the planet. It caused... See full answer below. The Cascadia can deliver a quake that’s many times stronger — plus a tsunami. About 15 to 20 minutes. It is where the Juan de Fuca plate meets the North American plate, and it stretches approximately 700 miles from northern Vancouver Island all the way down to northern California. Tension has been building up there for a very long time, and at some point that tension will be released. Magnitude: Earthquake Effects: Estimated Number Each Year: 2.5 or less: Usually not felt, but … With a magnitude of 9.5, the earthquake was the most powerful such event of the 20th century. (The timeframe does not include outlying events like the earlier 1361 Shōhei earthquake and 869 Sanriku earthquake, both estimated to have magnitude ≥ 8.5.) The magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake that struck south-central Alaska at 5:36 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1964, is the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history and the second-largest earthquake recorded with modern instruments. Unfortunately, the buying and selling of harvested baby parts does not shock the conscience of our nation. Since we have not experienced such an earthquake in any of our lifetimes, it is easy to assume that one will never happen. According to CNN, “the largest earthquake in the continental United States” took place along the Cascadia Subduction Zone on January 26th, 1700, and one of the reasons why it is considered to be far more dangerous than other west coast faults is because it is also capable of producing massive tsunamis…. The shaking will feel violent and it will be difficult to stand up. “Have we reached a point in our society where there effectively is an Amazon.com for human parts, entire babies?” Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.) asked the witnesses at a special hearing on bioethics and fetal tissue on Wednesday. Kenneth Murphy, who directs, The Pacific Northwest is due for a continent-rending earthquake. Stretching off the Pacific shore from northern California some 1300 kilometers to the tip of Vancouver Island, the Cascadia subduction zone appears capable of its own magnitude 9 earthquake. Probably not likely to happen at that magnitude. An earthquake is produced when pressure that has … The third factor is a new idea relating to a subduction zone’s stickiness. Geological clues show that it last jolted and unleashed a major earthquake in 1700, and that it does so roughly once every 500 years. Earthquakes in comparison occur along fault lines. So what would that look like? Rainier, which has been described as “the most dangerous mountain in America“. What the f*** does a 9.0 earthquake feel like? Dr. Gerard Kevin Donovan, a pediatrician and bioethicist at Georgetown University, responded that the practice of using tissue from aborted babies for government-funded research “shocks my conscience and it should shock the conscience of the nation.”. Of course, that'd be following a mighty powerful earthquake as well. An explanation of the magnitude of an earthquake versus the strength, or energy release, of an earthquake… This is still an area of current research, but comparisons of different seismic stations during the 2010 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake show that some parts of the fault released more strong shaking than others. Cascadia is America's own tectonic version of Sumatra, where the magnitude 9.3 earthquake and tsunami of 2004 occurred. “Cascadia can make an earthquake almost 30 times more energetic than the San Andreas to start with, and then it generates a tsunami at the same time, which the side-by-side motion of the San Andreas can’t do,” said Chris Goldfinger, a professor of geophysics at Oregon State University. The third factor is a new idea relating to a subduction zone’s stickiness. The following comes from. Other recent earthquakes have caused more damage and loss of life, however. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation. This subduction zone is capable of producing far more powerful earthquakes than the much more famous San Andreas fault in southern California, and scientists tell us that it is only a matter of time before another continent-killing earthquake hits this area. One, of course, is the epicenter, or more specifically the “hypocenter,” which locates the earthquake’s starting point in three-dimensional space. What would a 9.0-magnitude quake that also produced a huge tsunami do to the highly populated northwest coast? That’s the very big one. San Francisco earthquake of 1906, major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 that occurred on April 18, 1906, at 5:12 am off the northern California coast. Another factor they found to be important is how far inland the fault slips. If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. The colossal quake and … It’s a hypothetical magnitude-9.0 earthquake that could happen along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000 kilometre fault line that runs from … When this hits, it will be far worse than any other natural disaster that the United States has ever seen: If you live in the Pacific Northwest, you have probably already heard of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Page 2 of 4 / 2012–2013 Subduction Zone Earthquakes: Subduction zone earthquakes occur where the Juan de Fuca oceanic plate is being forced under the North American plate. Since we have not responded to God’s calls to repent, all that is left is for Him to shake us. There was a congressional hearing about this last Wednesday. We were being shown our guilt and we were being given one last chance to repent. So what will happen when it ruptures next is largely unknown. Research indicates the fault ruptured in a magnitude 9.0 event in 1700. The shaking will feel violent and it will be difficult to stand up. It was the expletive that set me off and I can empathise with the question put like that! In theory, yes, but it’s extremely unlikely. That means a magnitude 9 earthquake is 10x larger than a magnitude 8. The lesson: It doesn't take a magnitude-9 or greater to wreak havoc. Regardless, an earthquake of that magnitude would feel like like a sudden large jolt followed quickly by more strong shaking that may last a few seconds or up to a couple of minutes if it’s a rare great event. Here we'll look at each of these, as well as their interconnectedness and dependencies. CREW would like to thank Tamra Biasco and Joan Gomberg for overseeing the development of this updated edition of . View this answer. Sometimes a magnitude 4 can feel worse than a 5.5 if it's closer to your position. Researchers calculated a magnitude-7.8 would cause 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries. Of the magnitude of 8.5 or higher since 1500, meaning an increment each whole number increase measured. 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